The way people discover and buy products has fundamentally changed in the past few months. Google just launched a completely new commerce infrastructure. ChatGPT is preparing to roll out advertising. Consumers are skipping traditional search results entirely and asking AI assistants to make purchasing decisions for them.
If your marketing strategy still revolves around ranking for keywords and bidding on Google Ads the way you did in 2024, you are already behind. This guide breaks down seven major updates that are actively changing consumer behavior, along with specific actions you can take to capture this shifting traffic.
What You'll Learn?
- Google's Universal Commerce Protocol: Shopping Without Leaving AI
- ChatGPT Advertising Infrastructure: The $25 Billion Shift
- Google's Product ID Split Requirement: The March 2026 Deadline
- Direct Offers in AI Mode: Context-Aware Promotions
- Agentic Commerce: AI Making Purchases Autonomously
- AI Search Market Share: The 17% That Changes Everything
- Subscription Promotions Now Eligible on Google Shopping
- Frequently Asked Questions
Google's Universal Commerce Protocol: Shopping Without Leaving AI
On January 11, 2026, Google announced the Universal Commerce Protocol, a standardized system that lets people complete entire purchases inside AI Mode and the Gemini app without ever visiting your website.
This is not a minor feature update. Google developed UCP with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target, and over 20 other major retailers. The protocol creates a unified language between AI agents and commerce systems, handling everything from product discovery to checkout to post-purchase support.
Here is what actually happens now. Someone searches for running shoes in Google's AI Mode. The AI recommends specific products based on the conversation. The person selects a product, enters payment through Google Pay or PayPal, and completes the purchase. Your website never loads. The transaction happens entirely within Google's interface.
What Marketers Need to Do Right Now?
- Optimize product data: Your Merchant Center listings need complete, accurate data optimized for conversational discovery. Google rolled out dozens of new data attributes designed specifically for AI interactions.
- Set up attribution tracking: Traditional web analytics will undercount conversions happening through Google's AI checkout. You need measurement systems that capture purchases originating from AI interactions.
- Test Business Agent: Google launched this feature on January 12, 2026, letting shoppers chat directly with brands on Search. Major retailers including Lowe's, Michaels, Poshmark, and Reebok went live at launch.
ChatGPT Advertising Infrastructure: The $25 Billion Shift
ChatGPT is building production-grade advertising infrastructure. OpenAI posted job listings for Growth Paid Marketing Platform Engineers. Internal financial documents forecast $1 billion from free user monetization in 2026, growing to $25 billion in ad revenue by 2029.
The company hired Fidji Simo, former Meta executive and Instacart CEO who built their ad business, as CEO of Applications. Kate Rouch, former Meta and Coinbase marketing leader, joined as their first Chief Marketing Officer. These are not exploratory hires. They are scaling an advertising business.
How Consumer Behavior Is Changing?
ChatGPT has 800 million weekly active users as of early 2026, doubling from 400 million in February 2025. The platform handles 2.5 billion prompts daily. It commands 81% of the AI search market and 17% of all digital queries.
People are not just asking ChatGPT random questions. They are using it for purchase research, product comparisons, and buying recommendations. Research shows 70% of consumers now prefer generative AI tools for product and service recommendations over traditional search methods.
The conversion data tells the real story. Traffic referred from AI sources converts at 2.4 times the rate of organic search traffic. These are not casual browsers. They are people who had extended conversations with AI, received specific recommendations, and arrived with clear purchase intent.
Preparing for ChatGPT Ads
- Focus on Answer Engine Optimization (AEO): Create content AI systems trust enough to cite as authoritative sources. Use answer-first formatting, descriptive headers, and schema markup.
- Track your citation rate: Tools like Ahrefs Brand Radar show which AI engines mention your brand, how often they cite you, and whether the information they share is accurate.
- Fix measurement infrastructure: ChatGPT ads will likely use session-level tokens and APIs rather than cookie-based tracking. Build systems that can handle new attribution models.
Google's Product ID Split Requirement: The March 2026 Deadline
Starting in March 2026, Google Merchant Center requires separate product IDs when the same item differs between online and in-store versions in attributes like price, availability, or condition.
This sounds technical but has massive implications for omnichannel retailers. You can no longer manage products sold both online and in physical stores under a single identifier. A pair of jeans that costs $59.99 online but $64.99 in-store needs two separate product IDs.
Action Steps Before March 2026
- Audit your product catalog and identify items sold through multiple channels with varying attributes
- Plan how you will structure new product IDs to maintain clear relationships between variants
- Update feed management systems to handle the new structure before the deadline
- Review attribute rules and supplemental feeds for compliance
Direct Offers in AI Mode: Context-Aware Promotions
Google introduced Direct Offers, a pilot program in AI Mode that lets retailers promote exclusive discounts when AI detects purchase intent. This is not standard display advertising. Offers surface at the exact moment AI determines someone is close to buying.
The format focuses on value-based incentives. You can promote specific discounts, bundles, free shipping, and other offers that appear contextually relevant to the shopping conversation.
Strategic Implications
Margin management becomes more important. Blanket discounting does not work when you only have one chance to convert during an AI-driven shopping session. You need to understand which products can support promotional pricing and which cannot.
Monitor how AI Mode traffic behaves differently from traditional search traffic. Conversion rates, average order value, and return rates may vary significantly. This data informs which products and offers make sense for AI-driven promotion.
Agentic Commerce: AI Making Purchases Autonomously
Agentic commerce means AI can complete shopping tasks on behalf of users, from discovery through purchase to post-purchase support. This is not just answering questions. It is taking action.
Someone tells their AI assistant "Order coffee beans, same as last time." The agent checks previous purchases, verifies product availability, processes payment through saved methods, and completes the transaction. No human touches a shopping cart or enters payment details.
Early implementations already exist. Walmart's partnership with OpenAI allows customers to shop Walmart through ChatGPT using Instant Checkout. Amazon is testing similar capabilities. This is happening now, not in some distant future.
What This Means for Marketing?
- Brand preference becomes critical: When AI makes purchasing decisions, it relies on signals like previous purchases, ratings, price competitiveness, and availability.
- Customer retention drives future sales: An AI agent reordering based on purchase history will default to brands the customer previously bought.
- Clear positioning wins: AI systems making product recommendations rely on easily comparable attributes. Vague value propositions lose to clearer alternatives.
AI Search Market Share: The 17% That Changes Everything
ChatGPT commands 17% of all digital queries. That number sounds small compared to Google's 80%, but it represents the most significant threat to Google's market dominance in over two decades.
The breakdown matters. ChatGPT sees stronger engagement on desktop, suggesting preference among professionals and researchers making work-related and high-value decisions. Google maintains mobile dominance, aligning with casual, on-the-go usage.
Where ChatGPT Wins?
Long-form conversational queries work better on ChatGPT than Google. People describe problems in detail, provide context, and refine questions through follow-up prompts. This reveals solution intent rather than just search intent.
Creative and planning tasks favor ChatGPT. Trip planning, content creation, research synthesis, and problem-solving benefit from conversational interaction that traditional search results cannot match.
Google's Remaining Strength
Transactional searches still heavily favor Google's shopping features and paid ads. People looking to buy something right now prefer Google's interface.
But this is changing. As ChatGPT adds commerce features and advertising infrastructure, the gap narrows. The platform already handles about 66 million searches daily compared to Google's 14 billion. The scale gap is massive, but growth trajectory favors ChatGPT.
Subscription Promotions Now Eligible on Google Shopping
Google Shopping promotion policies updated in January 2026 to allow promotions on subscription fees. You can now advertise discounts on recurring services directly in Google Shopping ads.
Previously, subscription businesses could not promote free trials or discounted subscription offers in Shopping campaigns. This put them at a disadvantage against one-time purchase competitors during high-intent shopping moments.
Opportunity for Subscription Businesses
- Subscription models can now compete directly during peak shopping periods
- Free trials, discounted first months, multi-month bundles, and annual prepay discounts all qualify
- Lifetime value calculations change promotion economics, allowing more aggressive acquisition offers
Taking Action Before Your Competitors
The businesses succeeding in early 2026 are not waiting for perfect information. They are testing these new channels now, learning what works, and building capabilities while competitors hesitate.
Your Next Steps
- Clean up product data: Update Merchant Center listings, add conversational commerce attributes, and implement schema markup
- Track AI visibility: Monitor citation rates across ChatGPT, Perplexity, Google AI Mode, and Gemini
- Test new formats: Direct Offers, Business Agent, and upcoming ChatGPT advertising require different strategies than traditional ads
- Fix measurement: Build reporting systems that can handle AI-driven traffic sources and purchases without website visits
Frequently Asked Questions
Google's Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) launched on January 11, 2026. It's a standardized system that allows consumers to complete entire purchases inside Google's AI Mode and Gemini app without visiting retailer websites. The protocol was developed in partnership with major retailers including Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, and Target, creating a unified language between AI agents and commerce systems for seamless transactions.
According to internal financial documents, OpenAI forecasts $1 billion from free user monetization in 2026, growing to $25 billion in ad revenue by 2029. The company has hired senior executives from Meta and Instacart with proven track records in building advertising businesses, indicating serious commitment to this revenue stream.
Answer Engine Optimization (AEO) focuses on creating content that AI systems trust enough to cite as authoritative sources, while traditional SEO optimizes for search engine rankings. AEO requires answer-first formatting that delivers value immediately, descriptive headers that signal content topics to AI parsers, and schema markup that makes information easily extractable. The goal is to get cited in AI responses rather than ranking in traditional search results.
Starting in March 2026, Google Merchant Center requires separate product IDs when the same item differs between online and in-store versions in attributes like price, availability, or condition. This means retailers can no longer manage products sold through multiple channels under a single identifier if those products have different attributes. For example, a product priced at $59.99 online but $64.99 in-store needs two separate product IDs.
Traffic referred from AI sources converts at 2.4 times the rate of organic search traffic. This is because AI-referred visitors typically had extended conversations with AI assistants, received specific recommendations, and arrived with clear purchase intent rather than just browsing. These are highly qualified leads who have already done significant research before clicking through.
Agentic commerce refers to AI systems completing shopping tasks autonomously on behalf of users, from discovery through purchase to post-purchase support. Early implementations already exist, such as Walmart's partnership with OpenAI allowing customers to shop through ChatGPT using Instant Checkout. Consumer research indicates 43% of buyers want widespread AI implementation in their interactions with companies, with adoption likely starting with low-risk, repeat purchases like coffee subscriptions and household basics before expanding to high-involvement purchases.
Direct Offers is a pilot program in Google's AI Mode that lets retailers promote exclusive discounts when AI detects purchase intent. Unlike standard display advertising, these offers surface at the exact moment AI determines someone is close to buying. The format focuses on value-based incentives including specific discounts, bundles, free shipping, and other contextually relevant offers based on the shopping conversation.
Yes, Google Shopping promotion policies updated in January 2026 to allow promotions on subscription fees. Subscription businesses can now advertise free trials, discounted first months, multi-month bundles, and annual prepay discounts directly in Google Shopping ads. This puts them on equal footing with one-time purchase competitors during high-intent shopping moments.
ChatGPT commands 17% of all digital queries and 81% of the AI search market. While this seems small compared to Google's 80% market share, it represents the most significant threat to Google's dominance in over 20 years. ChatGPT has 800 million weekly active users and handles 2.5 billion prompts daily, with particularly strong engagement on desktop among professionals making work-related and high-value decisions.
Start by implementing Answer Engine Optimization to ensure AI systems cite your brand as an authoritative source. Track your current citation rates using tools like Ahrefs Brand Radar to establish a baseline. Update your measurement infrastructure to handle session-level tokens and API-based tracking rather than cookie-based attribution. Create content with answer-first formatting, descriptive headers, and schema markup that AI systems can easily parse and trust.
